GREECE: New Leaders May Not Bring New Answers
By Apostolis Fotiadis

ATHENS, Sep 24 (IPS) - The call for snap elections on Oct 2, about two years earlier than the end of the government's mandate surprised no one in Greece. They were in fact overdue given the political bankruptcy of the government of the right-wing party New Democracy (ND).

Involvement of high ranking government members in scandals over the last five years, and the government's inability to deal with the consequences of recession have not only alienated a big part of the electorate but also businessmen.

Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis has argued that he was forced by the opposition Panhellenic Socialist Party (Pasok) to call the elections Oct 4 because of its refusal to renew the mandate of President Karolos Papoulias. This is procedurally correct, but it is really the collapse of the government's economic policy that forced him to look for a way out.

The ND had an unstable majority of just one MP, with 151 MPs in a parliament of 300, and required Pasok support to renew the mandate of Papoulias due in March. Failure to elect the government’s candidate would amount to losing a confidence vote, and lead to dissolution of parliament.

Whoever wins the election will not necessarily have a quieter run. The worst consequences of recession lie ahead. The annual report of The Employment Institute of the General Union of Greek Workers (GSEE) says real unemployment will reach 17.3 percent next year. An estimated 700,000 people will be jobless by then in a nation of 10 million. The report says more than two million people will be below poverty limits.

Public dept that is now up to 90.1 percent of GDP is expected to cross 100 percent at the end of this year. The deficit is spinning out of control, and international creditors are threatening to devalue Greece in international markets, making the money it borrows through them expensive. Marko Mrsnik, a specialist on Greece with the ratings agency Standard & Poor's has warned that devaluation is imminent if the country does not reform its public security system soon.

Joaquin Almunia, European Union commisioner for economic and monetary affairs, has told both big parties that pre-election promises should not ignore the obligations of Greece under the Lisbon Treaty, which requires strict financial regulation of member states of the Euro zone.

While Almunia and Mrsnik's advocacy of economic liberalisation conflicts with the implicit call for social-friendly policies in GSEE's report, they all confirm the nightmarish scenario that the dynamic of the old economic development model is now exhausted. This was based on cheap international credit, European structural funds, high consumption, and high values for real estate.

Pasok and ND are now both avoiding a polarisation of their pre-election campaigns. "This is visible in the milder tactics employed by both big parties," Maria Surmopoulou, analyst at the Kapa Research Communication Company told IPS.

"The short pre-election campaign combined with a psychologically distressed electorate has created a volatile environment limiting the campaigning tools in the hands of parties," Surmopoulou said.

"From what we have seen so far ND has opted to appeal with rational arguments to the electorate, similarly Pasok seems to be avoiding negative comments and advertisement, understandable if someone thinks that following long-term social turbulence the electorate is so sensitive that a negative pre-election campaign could backfire dangerously and produce very negative results."

The crucial factor, says Surmopoulou, is the large number of uncertain voters, up to 26.1 percent according to her research.

The issue of migration, exploited both by ND and Pasok over the last few months, has been surprisingly absent from pre-election discourse. "This has to do with the fear of alienating voters who remain sensitive on the issue," Afroditi Al-Saleh, a specialist on migration and refugee issues told IPS.

"Both ND and Pasok attract very different voters; ND would not risk leaving some of the most rightist voters unsatisfied if it touched on the issue without becoming too harsh, and Pasok prefers to ignore it, aware that winning a majority depends on right-wing voters who abandon ND but are not sympathetic to pro-migrant opinions."

Opinion polls so far present an uncertain situation, but with Pasok increasing its chances of getting a majority.

The Greek Communist Party, which rehabilitated Stalin and his legacy at its last summit, is expected again to win its usual 7 to 8 percent, and remain the third force.

The extreme right Popular Orthodox Alarm (LAOS) has been climbing in the polls, and it is preparing to repeat its triumph after it got 7.14 percent of the vote, which translates into 366,615 votes, in the European elections last June.

Running on a 'cult of personality' focusing on its leader Giorgos Karatzaferis, the party has engaged in a display of populist electioneering, signing in showbiz stars, ex-footballers, a former head of secret services, and frustrated right-wing politicians. (END/2009)antigrafikon from ips.