AFP PHOTO/NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA
An “unknown” shareholder from the Russian partners in TNK-BP, a group of billionaires known collectively as Alfa Access Renova (AAR), said on 25 July that AAR would welcome Russia’s state oil major Rosneft as an equal partner.
"I don't see any big problem if BP takes the decision to sell its stake in TNK-BP to Rosneft," Interfax quoted the shareholder, who was not named by the news agency, as saying. "We (at TNK-BP) have a lot of synergies with Rosneft. I think there is nothing bad in this. TNK-BP's market capitalisation would only grow," the shareholder said.
One thing about the TNK-BP saga – there's never a dull moment. AAR groups Soviet-born oligarchs Mikhail Fridman, German Khan, Viktor Vekselberg and Len Blavatnik. Konstantin Simonov, head of Russia's National Energy Security Fund (NESF) in Moscow, toldNew Europe on 25 July that Fridman was the key person when AAR blocked a deal between BP and Rosneft to jointly develop Russia's Arctic shelf last year. A subsequent plan by BP and Rosneft to buy out AAR for about $32bn was called off at the last minute.
“Fridman is the main speaker,” Simonov said, citing as an example the billionaire’s interview to Russian newspaper Kommersant a few weeks ago “which was the official announcement of war with BP”. Subsequently, BP put the stake up for sale on 1 June after a breakdown in shareholder relations. “But AAR is not only Fridman. They are: Mr Vekselberg, Mr Blavatnik and Mr Khan. Mr Khan is very close to Mr [Igor] Sechin,” Simonov said, referring to the politically powerful Chief Executive at the helm of Rosneft and close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On 24 July announced that it would enter talks to buy BP's 50% lucrative stake in TNK-BP, Russia's third-largest oil company. “The parties agreed to comment on negotiations on this matter and signed a non-disclosure agreement,” Rosneft said in a statement. “We see that Mr Sechin is trying to take TNK-BP,” Simonov told New Europe. “Mr Sechin will use all possible instruments so Mr Khan can be this instrument and support the ideas of Rosneft. But what will be the answer of Mr Fridman?” the head of Russia's National Energy Security Fund (NESF) in Moscow asked?
Under the TNK-BP shareholder agreement, BP should provide AAR with the opportunity to buy the stake before offering it to outsiders. Last week, AAR said it was interested in buying half of its TNK-BP stake. “According to the agreement if Rosneft will make an official proposal - because we still don’t know what the amount of money is which Rosneft will pay for TNK-BP - then AAR will have this opportunity to find this money and buy this share in TNK-BP. Only if AAR will not be able to pay this sum of money, only in this case Rosneft will be the proprietor of 50% in TNK-BP. That is why now we will see the real answer of Fridman,” Simonov said, adding that last week Fridman reportedly started negotiations with American shareholders to try and raise the money needed to buy BP’s 50% stake in the Anglo-Russian JV. “They have 90 days that is why it will be very interesting three months,” Simonov said.
He estimated the final price at no less than $20bn. He opined that BP will try to take shares in Rosneft instead of cash for the deal. “But the cost of Rosneft is more than $75bn so it means that 50% in TNK-BP is equal to more than 25% in Rosneft,” Simonov said.
Rosneft's announcement that it would negotiate with BP on the TNK-BP stake signals the determination of the Kremlin to extend its control over the strategic oil sector. Four years ago when there was the beginning of this conflict between shareholders of TNK-BP there were a lot of rumours that soon a state company would be the shareholder in the joint venture. Suitors included Russian gas monopoly Gazprom and its oil arm - Gazprom Neft.
“Now it’s not rumours because we see the official proposal of Rosneft,” Simonov said. But he dismissed reports that it is Putin’s new policy of nationalisation. “It’s another page in our long-long story of redistribution of property in Russia. But it’s not a policy of nationalisation because I don’t think Rosneft will try to organise acquisition of all oil companies in Russia,” he said.
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