Greece: The day after will bring no surprises
There is no standard best or worse case scenarion for Greece. All depends from where you look at. Roughly for the Greeks, there is no best case scenario. The way they have been self-trapped there is only only one-way out, via the catastrophe. Yet for the Greeks it does matter what will be the result in the Sunday election. For Brussels and Washington (DC) , however, the result does not matter as Monday will be an ordinary day with business running “as usual.”
First lets see the big chessboard. In the Greek case, only two influencing factors are involved, Americans and the Europeans. Americans have considered Greece always, as their “territory.” This explains why after the military dictatorship (1967-1974) the Karamanlises (pro-European) were put, not gently, out of power and the Papandreous (pro-US) fluorished. Greece was drove to catastrophe by the decisions of George Papandreou during the last two years despite, the country could have avoided easily the worse, if two years earlier the then government had decided and acted differently.
Greece is an integral part of US geopolitics in Easter Mediterranean and toghether with Cyprus (strangely led by a communist) and Israel, constitute the trio of the trusted allies of Washington in the region. The role of Greece became crucial after the progressively freezing relations between Ankara and Washington, which was ignited during the first Gulf War. Therefore a political and economic detachment of Greece from its European allies fits well to the American plans for the area. A weak and isolated Greece is easy to handle and this is important considering the uncompromizing and revolutionary caracter of the Greeks.
Such a possible development now fits better to the European plans, as Greece does not constitute any more real threat to any European banks or the Euro currency. Greece is highly likely to go bankrupt after the Sunday election, yet without bothering the Euro, no matter what kind of government will be elected, simply because of state lack of cash-flow. To this effect a marginalization of Greece in the context of its EU membership, is now seen convenient for Brussels.
New Europe, after discussing in private with Brussels and Washington officials has come to the conclusions that,
- Brussels is having intense unofficial talks with all three mainstream political powers of Greece, that is Nea Dimokratia (conservatives) Syriza (quasi-communists and alike), and, PASOK (socialists). To this effect we learn that Syriza notified the EU that is ready to cooperate with Brussels so to secure that Greece will not produce any damage to the Eurozone. In this context the leader of Syriza Alexis tsipras made a “statement of obedience” through the Financial Times last Tuesday, securing the Europeans that once elected Greece will not exit from the EU or the Euro. As to the other two political powers, everything is clear, as both have submitted already in writing their willingness to follow Euro-atlantic “orthodoxy,” since last summer.
- In talking with the three political parties above, Brussels is reportedly conveying also the positions of Washington over the matter, as Americans are now more carefull in directly addressing issues related to the crisis in Europe.
All in all, in the present state of affairs and in relation to their interests possibly affected by the Greek crisis, Americans and Europeans have secured their positions and therefore they will not be affeted, thus they do not care, of the Sunday election result.
As to the day after the election for the Greeks, does very much matter which coalition will win (the “blue” of Nea Demokratia and PASOK or the “pink” of Syriza with various communist associates) the result will be the same. More restrictions, more misery, more unemployment and at the end of the tunnel bankruptcy.
If the “blue” coalition wins (this more likely to happen) the situation will be highly critical since the first day and everything will depend as to whether the government will be able to rule orderly. Indeed, the “pink” coalition, in this case intends to mobilize all discontent (counting for the great majority of the Greeks) and get them permanently in the streets with escalating violence until to overthrough the government. A takeover of the “pink” coalition in this case will be unvoidable and Greece will enter a new era of Andreas Papandreou via Alexis Tsipras, yet with a very gloomy outlook. Indeed, as Tsipras does not have the qualifications of Andreas neither the money nor the opportunities Papandreou had in 1981, things will be quite different.
If the “pink” coalition wins it will be unlikely to last for long as there will be no money while European financing, if it will continue, will not be enough to finance the expectations that the Greeks voting for the Left have invested upon. Therefore, the “pinks” will soon be out of power (after implementing the demolishment of the country and the Greek society). The more so that the Greek left, despite under one scheme or another totals some 40%, does not have access to the institutions necessary to secure power under difficult circumstances, that is, Justice, Public Order and Army. This scenario, if it happens, will be the best for Greece as, (1) after the Left “tsunami” will surcace a totally new political order in the country, including Greeks from Greece and abroad, transparent, uncorrupt, knowledgeable and democratic, capable to “reset” Greece and turn it into a modern European society, and, (2) Greece will get rid once and for the next half a century of the communists and associates.
Last but not least, it is worth noting that Washington is reportadly (and according to well informed sources in the American capital is pushing for) in favor of the last scenario. That is for the “pink” coalition to win this Sunday thus after a few months to end with the most serious communist leftover in the whole of Europe. Indeed, to believe that the Cold War is over, is a rather naïve assumption as if one reads today the famous “Long Telegram” sent to State by George Kennan, the US Ambassador in Moscow, on February 22, 1946, will be surprised how valid it is still today. new europe on line
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