What the Arab geographer Al-Muqaddasi noted a thousand years ago still holds true today: “The island of Qubrus is in the power of whichever nation is overlord in these seas.” However, there seems to be some disagreement as to who is overlord. Turkey considers the Eastern Mediterranean as ‘mare nostrum’ and Turkey’s transport, maritime and communications minister, Binali Yıldırım, has made it clear that no project in this region can be formed and run without Turkey’s consent. Nevertheless, the Republic of Cyprus has exercised its sovereign right to exploit its offshore natural resources and has agreed with Lebanon, Egypt and Israel to delimit their respective Exclusive Economic Zones. Despite widespread international support for RoC’s exercise of its rights, Turkey has sent a research vessel into Cypriot territorial waters escorted by Turkish warships and in September concluded a continental shelf delimitation agreement with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a political entity only recognized by Turkey.
In November the Turkish minister for energy, Taner Yıldız, announced that the Turkish Petroleum Corporation was ready to start drilling for oil and natural gas in Famagusta in Northern Cyprus.
In the RoC’s EEZ an American company, Noble Energy, began drilling in Block 12 (the Aphrodite field) in September, and in November Noble Energy announced that the block would yield between 3 and 9 trillion cubic feet of gas with a 60 percent probability of success. 16 trillion cubic feet have been discovered in the adjacent Israeli block (Leviathan). According to the US Geological Survey there are 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas in the Levant Basin between Cyprus and Israel. By comparison all the EU countries combined hold 86.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. In geopolitical terms this is a real game changer and as one EU diplomat put it: “the most importance change to the geopolitical significance of this part of the world since the Suez Canal”.
New strategic alliance
The Republic of Cyprus has now announced a second round of licensing, which opens up for an interesting strategic perspective. Until the discovery of natural gas Cyprus was off the USA’s radar screen. Not any longer. There are now signs of a strategic alliance between three of the major protagonists in the region. Greece, Cyprus and Israel. Greece has confirmed its long-standing defence pact with Cyprus and in the past year has upgraded its relations with Israel. The deputy foreign ministers of Greece and Israel recently confirmed that their two countries have common strategic interests in energy and energy security and a trilateral memorandum of understanding between Greece, Israel and Cyprus concerning natural gas is expected to be signed soon. In November a joint military exercise between the Greek and Israeli air force took place in southern Israel.
Last month an official visit to Cyprus by Israeli President Shimon Peres was concluded by the signing of three agreements and a memorandum of understanding. There have also been joint aerial manoeuvres between the two countries. And in an interview with the Greek Cypriot daily Phileleftheros the Cypriot defence minister mentioned that agreements related to defence cooperation and security were underway.
Israel and Turkey
Relations between Turkey and Israel have since May last year been bedevilled by the Mavi Marmara incident, when nine activists in a so-called aid flotilla to Gaza were killed by Israeli commandos. The UN’s Palmer Report found Israel’s blockade to be legal but that the IDF had reacted with excessive force. However, Israel’s refusal to issue an apology and pay compensation has been met by a third demand from Turkey - the recognition of Hamas.
The resulting standoff has frozen relations between the two former allies but it is hoped that the appointment of David Meidan, the mediator in the Shalit swap, might lead to a thaw. In 2007 Turkish and Israeli officials held initial talks on constructing a 460 km.
oil and gas pipeline from Ceyhan to Haifa. Now Turkey’s minister for energy, Taner Yıldız, has said that Turkey will not allow Israel to export natural gas to Europe through Turkey.
There is another major player, Russia, which has also had a long-standing alliance with Cyprus and has ruled out any recognition of a Turkish state in Northern Cyprus.
The economy of Greek Cyprus is underpinned by Russian investment and a recent loan of €2.5 billion might save Cyprus from the embarrassment of an EU bailout. Russia is one of Turkey’s major trading partners and supplies Turkey with natural gas through the Blue Stream project. Turkey’s role as a regional energy hub would also be threatened by an alliance between Cyprus and Israel but the open question is what action Turkey can and will take. In view of the fact that reunification talks in New York in mid-January are expected to end with a deadlock, menfaat (mutual benefit) might act as a greater incentive.
Robert Ellis is a regular commentator on Turkish affairs and advisor to the EFD’s Turkey Assessment Group in the European Parliament
ο ΟΗΕ δεν πρέπει να ξεχάσει ποίος πατεί βίαια την Κύπρο και επίσης τα ψηφίσματα και τις αποφάσεις του αν επιθυμεί να συμβάλει σε μια δίκαιη λύση.
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